Political situation in Bangkok

Samak Sundaravej is the actual Prime Minister in Thailand and has been in charge since January 2008. But he is accused of corruption and first of all of being a front of Thaksin Shinawatra a former Prime Minister now in exil in Europe (Manchester city).

Thaksin Shinawatra was in charge in 2006 when allegations of corruption began and lead to a call for re-election. Thaksin Shinawatra was then re-elected and therefore pressure went on, leading to a military coup on 19th September 2006.

Then I am not really sure what happened during the time the junta was in charge but I just understood that it leads to new democratic elections in december 2007, when Samak was elected. ( In fact it is just the proof of the failure of the coup as Samak has been elected with the votes of the rural people who were supporters of Thaksin before he was kicked out ... back to zero !!)

Now the protesters (People's Alliance Democracy, PAD supporters) are demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej on allegation of corruption. The problem is that they don't care about the state of emergency and keep striking while Samak refuses to resign ...

There is a major debate about what would be the good solution ... some want Samak to resign but this would means that his government stays in charge, some think that he should disolve the assembly which sounds the most democratic solution but the problem is that his party is very likely to be re-elected, as most of the population from the province supports him and was also in favor of Thaksin Shinawatra...

Honestly Thailand is really facing an impass. Here is a summary of different possible scenarios, that i could read in the news :
- a referendum BUT means waiting at least until october and it will be tough to agree on the terms of the paper
- Samak and his government resign, the protesters would be happy BUT it is not very likely to happen as Samak consider (and it is true) that he has a legitimate mandate
- Dissolve the assembly BUT as I explained already PPP is likely to win again (People's Power Party : only in Asia you could find such a name for a Party lol)
- Protesters won't stop, it is not even an option, they look really decided and they are even growing !
- MOST POSSIBLE, the government could be dissolved : "The Thai Election Commission recently ruled that the PPP committed electoral fraud during December's poll and should be dissolved...But it will probably take months before the Constitutional Court decides whether to accept the Election Commission's recommendation - and the current stalemate is unlikely to last that long"(BBC)
- it would also not be unsurprising that Samak tries to use violence BUT he would then loose credibility and support and the army won't necesseraly accept either !
- Pro-government supporters also begin to strike ... BUT in this case I don't go to BKK anymore cause the official name of this is civil war and it is not that SEXY :(
- Intervention of the King !!! I hope and think this will be the case ... Bhumibol Adulyadej is really revered across the nation and could bring peace back.

and because it is always classy to finish with a quote to foster my point :
"Our political system has been unstable all the time. So whenever there is a political crisis people expect the King to solve the problem." Prof Suchit Bunbongkarn